The Value in Thinking Ahead

It’s been a crazy year. Uncertain. Scary. Novel (in the less-than-fun way). Confusing.

New updates, stats, recommendations, and forecasts have been coming out fast and furious. There has been a new normal seemingly every moment.

This moment has also been an interesting case study in planning. How do you strategize for a pandemic that has an exponential contagion curve and a lag time for discovery?

For great graphs and insight read this post on Tim Ferriss’s blog. I’m not going to recap it here, just provide my thoughts on it.

By acting on current information we’re already too late. By roughly 10 days. It can make it tough to parse what situation we actually find ourselves in.

I wish I had insight on how to approach our current pandemic. But I don’t. But what I do know is that this combination of factors is not unique to Covid-19. It’s not even unique to viruses. But the health aspect makes it much more pressing and scary.

How can we adapt the lessons we are learning in real-time now and apply them to other exponential events? Not necessarily ones that threaten our health, but maybe our society, our planet, our future, or even our businesses and everyday lives.

You can’t wait until you have all the information to make a decision. By then it is far past being too late to act. You need to plan, strategize, and act as early as possible. By using the information available, forecasts and predictions, and models adapted from similar events in history.